Season of plenty

For a nation used to the shortage of almost everything, some news about things in plenty is indeed a surprise. Nearly two years after the Operation Bandwidth campaign, the nation is witnessing the availability of surplus telecom bandwidth.

According to industry estimates, about 1.5-gigabit per second (1500 mbps) of internet bandwidth is available in the country. The recently privatized VSNL, the nation's dominant Internet Service Provider (ISP) accounts for four fifths of this available capacity. However, the nation is currently using just half of this bandwidth. The availability of bandwidth is likely to double soon when the Bharti-Singtel submarine cable project with its landing point in Chennai is complete. This project would add another 1.2 gbps to add to the glut.

Is this good or bad? Surplus bandwidth has been created by the slowdown in the Internet service market place. The demand for bandwidth has grown only by 25 percent to 750 mbps this year. This means that the usage of Internet time has not grown as much as was expected. Capacity additions to bandwidth had taken place on the assumption of much higher growth in Internet usage. Data indicates that Internet subscriber base increased only by 11 percent per quarter this year against an average of 54 percent last year. No wonder the best-laid plans of bandwidth providers have gone awry.

The impact of the glut is yet to be felt by the customers. VSNL has cut the bandwidth prices sharply. However, ISPs have yet to pass on the lower cost of bandwidth to the subscribers by reducing the access charges. ISPs have, by and large, used the opportunity to recoup the losses incurred in setting up the network and improve their bottomline. The bandwidth scenario has similarity with big infrastructure projects such as roads and railway systems.

The experience all over the world with such infrastructure projects is that the initial plans go wrong in estimating demands. Traffic projections do not take place as much as per the initial estimates. The gestation period for full use of such infrastructure facilities is high.

Whether it is the surface freeway between Mumbai and Pune, the mass rapid transit system train in Chennai or the underground metro in Kolkata or the ring railway systems in New Delhi or Bangkok or the undersea channel trains between England and Paris, the demand curve is slow to pick up.

But as it happens in these cases, the use spurts when the certainty about the availability of these key infrastructure facilities is firmly established. Based on this, we can hope that the bandwidth glut too is temporary. Users may be lured by the glut. The bandwidth providers too may have to do their bit through appropriate measures to reach the news across and spread the awareness about the benefits of increased bandwidth availability. 

It is also time the internet access is expanded beyond the confines of big cities. If the problems associated with last mile connectivity are sorted out, Internet nodes could be set up in remote areas and popular tourist destinations and educational institutions and research centers across the vast expanse of the country. Availability of simple access points with appropriate applications could increase Internet use significantly.

Instead of running to the government for support, the industry should take up the task of stimulating demand for bandwidth.