Overcoming mere projections–too political to be true

Contrary to what might have been expected by the key players,
the news of the HP and Compaq merger invited rather harsh criticism. Suddenly
people were talking very negatively about the two organizations. Comments like
'two losers do not make a winner' were certainly not expected!

It was kind of déjà vu for me. I had earlier discussed the
possible implications of the Compaq-Digital merger in this very column. Cultural
compatibility issues are critical in such mega-mergers and can potentially wreck
the combine if not handled with extreme caution and care.

So what are we to take away from this? Did Digital not do for
Compaq what was expected? Are we to believe now that Compaq will deliver the
results for HP? (With 15,000 jobs at stake wonder who is concentrating on work!)
Well, I will reserve my comments for the moment. I have already expressed them
earlier in this column and the events post that have only lent credence to what
I said then.

What is to be expected next? Maybe an IBM takeover of HP in
two years time! Well, well, well…. I seem to be stepping on dangerous
territory! This business of projections is not really my forte. For that matter,
god knows whose forte it is! Most projections have come a cropper in the recent
past.

Those who have made it their business to project, of course
have no choice. They need to keep on making projection after projection to earn
their livelihood. The good part about this business of making projections is
that it is like the politician’s promise! A politician lives from promise to
promise. The moment he makes a new promise, the old one is relegated to the
recycle bin! (In fact, he makes sure that even the recycle bin is emptied
regularly, lest some nosey media guys retrieve it and cause avoidable
embarrassment! Come to think of it, politicians just might make good system
administrators in our IT industry!)

And so it is that our friends at McKinsey have come out with
yet another projection of sorts. (Remember their earlier one — the NASSCOM -
McKinsey report on the IT enabled services?) This latest one is on the growth
possibilities of the Indian economy—at a whopping 10 percent. At a time when
the economy is actually registering negative growth and not even managing the 6
percent mark, this announcement seems a far cry!

Whatever be the merit of the report, McKinsey certainly seems
to know how to market itself! The kind of shock waves (if I can call it that)
they manage to send around with each report, ensures that everyone at least
reaches ‘awareness levels’ about their work. (The TV media anyway works
overtime to find stories to fill its 24x7 agenda!)

But I am not sure if McKinsey has considered the possible
backlash of such reports. After all HP too must have thought that it would
create waves with the news of its acquisition of Compaq. Well, it did but in a
very negative fashion.

Look at it this way. By stating that the economy can grow at
10 percent, when it is tottering at around 5 percent, McKinsey might just stir a
hornet’s nest. The media is already working overtime. This report will create
a tremendous pressure on the government to explore all possibilities to make the
10 percent growth happen. Since most of the problems with the government are at
the implementation level, chances are that it will not be able to achieve any
significant results anyway. That will further highlight the government’s
inadequacies. (Do you see the spot in which McKinsey has managed to put the
government in?)

I am sure that there would be some merit in what McKinsey has
proposed. Even if many of its recommendations are declared impractical, there
are bound to be some that can be implemented to good effect. The question is, do
we have the will and inclination to hunt out solutions and implement them
sincerely? Even if there is one good suggestion in the whole report it must be
taken forward in all earnestness.

Of course, that means that those at the helm of affairs must
find quality time to go through the report and understand it in depth. (Wonder
if that will be possible with a government that seems to be always busy trying
to keep its flock together!) More likely than not, a couple of weak points will
be quickly discovered and the entire report will be lambasted as not amenable to
implementation. We will have lost another opportunity to make a paradigm shift
to put the economy in high gear. (Hope nobody accuses me of being a McKinsey
spokesperson. I seem to have come out rather strongly for them. That too when I
haven’t even gone through this report! See, how a bad track record of one
party can make you blind to the other party’s possible shortcomings.
Anti-incumbency factors really seem to work. Elections or no elections!)

At the end of it all, the ability to spot those few things
that can make all the difference comes rare. If only people could work towards
that, and then follow it up with those several small things that contribute to
the larger objective, we would progress much faster. As individuals, as
organizations, and as nations we need to appreciate this basic truth. But that
requires courage to accept realities in the first place. It may be difficult for
the government to do that for political reasons. But HP and Compaq should know
better. Unless, of course, they too have a hidden agenda! (After all, politics
exists in organizations too! Is not it?)

Sumit Sharma is VP, Microland and the author of the book titled 'The
Corporate Circus'. The views expressed in this article are of the author's and
not of Microland.