New year, new predictions

New
year, new predictions

The year 2005 comes to a close and the New Year starts. How
quickly the year went by! It seems only yesterday when I sat down to write down
the predictions for 2005, which I must admit were more or less bang on target.
This means I can walk around with my chin high. And also, this gives me an added
impetus to once again stick my neck out by making my predictions for the ensuing
year.

1. Mergers and acquisitions
   amongst the distributors will be gain momentum. Last year, we had one
   acquisition in Sahara taking over SES. The New Year will see not only
   acquisitions but also mergers amongst the smaller distis who are looking at
   building up their toplines, without which there very existence will be at
   stake.

2. The importance and clout of
   Regional Distributors (RDs) will go up considerably. This trend has already
   started and will now accelerate as principals look at penetrating every nook
   and corner of the country. In addition, RDs will give them a much larger
   footprint in terms of number of cities served and also number of resellers
   catered to.

3. Channel partners will diversify
   their business. This is another trend, which is already visible. More and
   more partners have added other lines of business, not necessarily in the
   infotech arena. Some have opened nursing homes, some have got onto SMS
   marketing, some have got into herbal products and a number of them have
   added property portfolio.

4. Incidents of fraud cases will
   rise exponentially. For quiet some time now, cases of fraud amongst the
   channel community were few and far between. In the last two years they had
   almost died down. Now that business is booming, plenty of fly-by-night
   operators are entering this business. Also, earlier fraud cases were mainly
   happening in the metros. Now, we see a lot many cases happening in the
   smaller towns.

5. The share of PC assemblers will
   continue to be steady. Contrary to the claims made by industry bodies and
   others, assemblers are not going to ride into the sunset. While their market
   share may not go up, it will not go down either. They will continue to enjoy
   40 percent plus share.

6. Delhi will have a mega IT show.
   In the nineties, the biggest IT trade show of India-Comdex-used to be
   held in Delhi. And now, not even a small show is held. Rather, other smaller
   cities have been holding trade shows regularly, thanks to the local channel
   associations. This is set to change with PCAIT-Delhi's premier IT
   association-planning to organize a big IT show.
   
   

I am pretty sure of my predictions.
However, if anybody thinks to the contrary, please drop in a mail. I would
welcome the feedback from our readers. In the meantime, have a great new year.