New year, new predictions

DQW Bureau
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year, new predictions

The year 2005 comes to a close and the New Year starts. How

quickly the year went by! It seems only yesterday when I sat down to write down

the predictions for 2005, which I must admit were more or less bang on target.

This means I can walk around with my chin high. And also, this gives me an added

impetus to once again stick my neck out by making my predictions for the ensuing


  1. Mergers and acquisitions

    amongst the distributors will be gain momentum. Last year, we had one

    acquisition in Sahara taking over SES. The New Year will see not only

    acquisitions but also mergers amongst the smaller distis who are looking at

    building up their toplines, without which there very existence will be at


  2. The importance and clout of

    Regional Distributors (RDs) will go up considerably. This trend has already

    started and will now accelerate as principals look at penetrating every nook

    and corner of the country. In addition, RDs will give them a much larger

    footprint in terms of number of cities served and also number of resellers

    catered to.

  3. Channel partners will diversify

    their business. This is another trend, which is already visible. More and

    more partners have added other lines of business, not necessarily in the

    infotech arena. Some have opened nursing homes, some have got onto SMS

    marketing, some have got into herbal products and a number of them have

    added property portfolio.

  4. Incidents of fraud cases will

    rise exponentially. For quiet some time now, cases of fraud amongst the

    channel community were few and far between. In the last two years they had

    almost died down. Now that business is booming, plenty of fly-by-night

    operators are entering this business. Also, earlier fraud cases were mainly

    happening in the metros. Now, we see a lot many cases happening in the

    smaller towns.

  5. The share of PC assemblers will

    continue to be steady. Contrary to the claims made by industry bodies and

    others, assemblers are not going to ride into the sunset. While their market

    share may not go up, it will not go down either. They will continue to enjoy

    40 percent plus share.

  6. Delhi will have a mega IT show.

    In the nineties, the biggest IT trade show of India-Comdex-used to be

    held in Delhi. And now, not even a small show is held. Rather, other smaller

    cities have been holding trade shows regularly, thanks to the local channel

    associations. This is set to change with PCAIT-Delhi's premier IT

    association-planning to organize a big IT show.


I am pretty sure of my predictions.

However, if anybody thinks to the contrary, please drop in a mail. I would

welcome the feedback from our readers. In the meantime, have a great new year.