year, new predictions
The year 2005 comes to a close and the New Year starts. How
quickly the year went by! It seems only yesterday when I sat down to write down
the predictions for 2005, which I must admit were more or less bang on target.
This means I can walk around with my chin high. And also, this gives me an added
impetus to once again stick my neck out by making my predictions for the ensuing
Mergers and acquisitions
amongst the distributors will be gain momentum. Last year, we had one
acquisition in Sahara taking over SES. The New Year will see not only
acquisitions but also mergers amongst the smaller distis who are looking at
building up their toplines, without which there very existence will be at
The importance and clout of
Regional Distributors (RDs) will go up considerably. This trend has already
started and will now accelerate as principals look at penetrating every nook
and corner of the country. In addition, RDs will give them a much larger
footprint in terms of number of cities served and also number of resellers
Channel partners will diversify
their business. This is another trend, which is already visible. More and
more partners have added other lines of business, not necessarily in the
infotech arena. Some have opened nursing homes, some have got onto SMS
marketing, some have got into herbal products and a number of them have
added property portfolio.
Incidents of fraud cases will
rise exponentially. For quiet some time now, cases of fraud amongst the
channel community were few and far between. In the last two years they had
almost died down. Now that business is booming, plenty of fly-by-night
operators are entering this business. Also, earlier fraud cases were mainly
happening in the metros. Now, we see a lot many cases happening in the
The share of PC assemblers will
continue to be steady. Contrary to the claims made by industry bodies and
others, assemblers are not going to ride into the sunset. While their market
share may not go up, it will not go down either. They will continue to enjoy
40 percent plus share.
Delhi will have a mega IT show.
In the nineties, the biggest IT trade show of India-Comdex-used to be
held in Delhi. And now, not even a small show is held. Rather, other smaller
cities have been holding trade shows regularly, thanks to the local channel
associations. This is set to change with PCAIT-Delhi's premier IT
association-planning to organize a big IT show.
I am pretty sure of my predictions.
However, if anybody thinks to the contrary, please drop in a mail. I would
welcome the feedback from our readers. In the meantime, have a great new year.