Making good out of bad times!

In the last two weeks since black Tuesday, several people have called up my wife (mostly relatives) inquiring if she has stocked up essentials at home for the hard days ahead. When asked what hard days they were talking about, they seemed to be rather taken aback at the lack of her knowledge of current affairs. "Well, do not you know that a war is to break out any day", they quipped. All efforts to calm them down of course were in vain. When knowledgeable people start behaving in this fashion, what is to be expected of the others?

I remember people making a beeline at petrol pumps some time back on rumors of an impending rise in prices. How much petrol can you stock? How much will you be able to save? How much food can you stock? How long will it last you? How many days do you think the war will last? How does it all help?

The stock market has already gone down under. We are seeing the stock indices touching its lowest in nearly a decade. It is a situation where sentiments count more than facts. For all the developments, for all the progress that man has made, for all the bravado, when it comes to the crunch, it is the heart that seems to take over. At the end of it all, if what we have been anticipating does not happen, we will feel let down, Even if it is an anticipated crisis that has not happened! 

So the big question now is, will there be a war? Will it be World War III? And when will it be? People already seem to be getting a little tired of the big event not taking place. After all, there is a limit to one's patience! Hey America, are you gonna just threaten, or are you gonna act?

Well, whatever America decides to do (or not do), the bookies have decided to do their job! It is one lot that does not operate from the heart. Yet, it has one of those few people who value sentiments! Ever wondered how valuable people's sentiments are? In a world that has forgotten to care about other people's feelings, the bookies realize that sentiments can be worth millions. That 'sentiments' can be treated like any other product and makes for a good business proposition! 'Sentiments' can be traded too. For people are willing to put money on it. The best part of it all is that the quality of sentiment does not matter. So if you are willing to put your money where you 'sentiment' is, the bookie is willing to offer you a deal. Pro or anti America? Who cares!

To get back to some serious talk, in their heart of hearts, I guess, most people hope that there is no war. Things are pretty bad without one.

The IT industry has been looking westward for quite some time for signs of hope. Unfortunately, all it can see are clouds of more gloom. With more industries, like aerospace, joining the cost cutting binge, the last rays of hope might disappear too. So where are we to go from here? Even the analysts might not want to venture a guess, err.. , I mean a projection at this stage!

Whatever the ultimate outcome, as of now all eyes are on the US. If US is taking its time not striking, I am sure it would have good reasons for not doing so. The adage 'fools rush in where angels fear to tread' might truly be apt here. And US will not want to suffer another humiliation.

For all you know (and this is the optimist in me thinking), all this delay in action might be because US is taking its time contemplating how to use this opportunity to achieve several objectives with one masterful stroke! It has already achieved a major win in terms of getting most nations on its side with its anti-terrorism plank. That is a major political win! 

The bigger challenge, of course, is the state of the worldwide economy. Having realized that the war against terrorism has to be fought on a global level with the co-operation of all other countries, the process of introspection might just have led to the dawn of a new radical thought process - that there is a need to also fight a war against economic malaise with global co-operation. After all, for how long can it afford to squander its hard earned money on soft loans and aids and credit to weak economies of the world which neither seem to have the capacity nor the will to repay?

In the long run US needs economically stronger nations around. Only that way can it hope to sell its produce to others and also hope to get paid for it. Waiving off billions of dollars in dues from countries is no way to go on with life. By helping such nations develop their economies, US will only do good to itself. Hopefully, it will also make it less tempting for nations to engage in, harbor, or act as conduits for terrorist activities, drug trafficking and other similar anti-social pass times! The present scenario offers a perfect opportunity for US to get nations to toe its line in return for gainful
co-operation.

The major gain for America, in this grand design, would be the creation of a near uni-polar world that sides with it. That would mean fewer hostile nations to worry about and a possibility of reducing its defense expenditure. That way it could channel more funds into its own internal welfare, infrastructure development, and internal security enhancement programs. (And you thought they were finally seized with our Kashmir problem!)

As I have often said, the smart guys will always find an opportunity in every situation. Whatever happens to Pakistan in the unfolding drama, it has been quick to sense the opportunity in the problem and cashed on it. As for us, we will probably sit on the sidelines and wait for the American market to pick up and bail us out. Needless to say, I would be happy if I am wrong!