Lifting the gloom

The current economic and business conditions for the IT industry are gloomy. But an authoritative report of the Government of India presents an overall rosy picture for the industry in the next seven years. According to the report, the IT industry is expected to reach a size of $ 87.5 billion in 2008 and has the potential to generate seven million jobs.

Such a highly optimistic scenario has been presented in a report on the human resources development in the IT industry presented to the Planning Commission. The Ministry of IT (MIT) has prepared this report to assist the Planning Commission with its Tenth Five Year Plan of the government's capital expenditure. According to the report, the software sector is expected to require at least 22 lakh people to meet its revenue projections in 2008. Additionally, the computer hardware segment is likely to provide employment directly to 16 lakh professional. Another 32 lakh people will benefit directly by the business generated by the hardware sector.

The IT ministry report estimates that the software product development segment would require an extra 200,000 professionals. The software services would need 577,000. The ministry expects the e-business segment may grow to a size of $10 billion and would require 330,000 people. IT enabled services are expected to grow and require at least 12.60 lakh professionals by 2008.

The report has identified the segments which will provide the maximum revenue and employment generation potential. High growth can be expected in cyber law and intellectual property rights issues, 3G and 4G ( third and fourth generation) communication, quantum computing, cryptography and data security, net-centric computing, fiber optic communication, healthcare and biomedicine systems and GIS applications.

These optimistic projections have been somewhat dampened by the observation that quality of manpower will continue to be an issue confronting the nation. In fact, the report has warned that heavy demand for IT professionals may keep the quality down as the industry manages to hire every trained hand available By and large, the report has been prepared keeping in mind the targets set for software and hardware segments for 2008. The impact of the current economic slowdown in major markets worldwide has been dealt with in the report as a passing phase.

Are such rosy projections warranted? May be, yes. Because, it projects an emerging scenario and companies and individuals that are well prepared would be in a better position to take advantage of emerging opportunities. However, it must be remembered that mere desk-bound research is not going to take the country there. It has to be made to happen. To make it happen, many key enablers are required.

For instance, the current slowdown in the US market has brought home the need to have a diverse set of clients for the software segment. Similarly, the hardware industry was making all the plans on the basis of high domestic economic growth continuing unabated for some more time. On both counts, the industry has been jolted.

Many have to rework their strategies, to factor in similar hiccups in the future. Inspite of all the competition, Indian market was by and large a seller's market. Like every other segment, the consumer got the short end of the stick most of the time, be it in product quality, support services, financial terms etc. Software exporters did not bother too much about creating domestic demand and using the local market as a testing place to iron out glitches. This is an area that needs attention. There are several economic activities that cry for software to make the transaction process easy for the Indian public. Industry should pay attention to this.

The government too needs to do a lot of things to make this happen. Already the government is talking about the need for full digital literacy. The government can help a lot by encouraging the use of IT extensively in its interface with the public.

Information dissemination, tax returns filing, railway ticket booking, land records registration, statutory payments, etc, carried out digitally would not only stimulate the domestic economy but also prepare the citizens to be adept in handling their tasks better in the emerging digital economy of the world.