IT to politics: Projections come a cropper!

Looks like it’s stock take
time for everything! Even predictions and projections. I am reminded of the
article I wrote some time back on IT projections. Now with the fiasco on the
political front where pollsters have come a cropper, it is time to seriously
consider if all this really makes sense. Should so much time, effort and money
be spent on this kind of activity!

Astrology and palmistry (as well
as their variants) have held man’s interest since times immemorial. The urge
and excitement to delve into the future and peek at what is in store has
prompted man to try out all kinds of fortune tellers. The business research
analysts and the sephologists are modern day avators with a ‘scientific’
positioning stance. (Makes me wonder, why the meteorologist’s have not been
able to predict weather correctly on a sustained basis despite being at the job
for so many decades!)

The right to project poll
results has been fiercely defended by the protogonists. But I do believe that
what they come up with has the potential of affecting people both positively and
negatively. Ofcourse, noboday has gone ahead and researched the impact of poll
projections on potential voters. Maybe, it is time for one!

So will our media guys,
especially the TV channels do some serious thinking on the issue. (I guess they
do it in private. But when it comes to running a business, there are other
compulsions. After all they too compete with others in their own fraternity!)

And so it is with research
groups and analyst organizations. With the dotcom meltdown, what will happen to
their multi billion dollar projections for IT enabled services, for the ISPs and
the MSP market etc? Such projections have prompted numerous entrepreneurs to put
in millions in these businesses.

From an Indian standpoint, the
outcome has been extremely discouraging. Where are all the call centers for
instance? And look at the state of the ISPs. Not that these are industries are
without potential. But when projections are for 2008, you can not possibly set
up shop now and still hope for those numbers. I guess the problem is not with an
individual’s thinking. But collectively, the figures do not measure up. When
10 different guys set up shop at the same time, each visualizing that he will
capture the market, over capacity is a foregone conclusion.

I am sure great projections must
have been made about TV viewership. It definitely took its time in happening.
Neither did the software industry take off overnight. The rights thing to do is
to recognize the inevitability of the new age businesses or shall I say the new
age technologies, in helping transform old economy businesses and work gradually
towards it.

What has happened to the new
economy business is something similar to the real estate business capacities
that have been created in the hope of making a killing. But the customers are
just not there in the required numbers.

Makes me wonder if we are
looking in the right direction to chart our even course of action. The Americans
have been great innovators. But I am not sure if they are the best guys around
in terms of consolidating on their innovations. One new idea and the whole
country moves in that direction. Some thing negative and everyone moves away.
There is too much churn in the system.

Look at the Japanese. They
always seem to be on the lookout for good ideas. And when they spot one, they
work hard to perfect it and move ahead. They refine things in all respects so as
to become better and more competitive. And obviously they choose areas where
they know they will have time to market. They seem to have moved ahead from
‘Just in Time’ (JIT) inventory to ‘Just in time’ business.

Why doesn’t one hear about the
Japs going through the kind of roller coaster developments in industry like the
Americans do. It might be interesting to sum up the result of such developments
in financial terms. What do you gain as a result of early developments and what
do you lose as a result of abandoning projects and laying off people, compared
to steady ongoing developments?

The Indians would do well to
build their strengths steadily and in areas that promise sustained growth. What
is important is that we should be able to think through and decide areas where
we can build positions of strength and leadership over a period of time. We may
not be the first to implement new ideas because of resource limitation. But the
Japanese have proved that in the long run you can still build a formidable
strength in areas of your core competency.

And that means introspecting and
objectively evaluating yourself. Projections of the analyst and research groups
need to be considered in the right perspective–as a general indicator of
business direction. Not something to be lapped up. Not something to base your
entire business decision on.

You do not start and run
businesses on the premise that you will make a fast buck. Businesses must be
nurtured to health. Try to milk it and you might find yourself left high and
dry. Making projections is some body else’s business. Don’t make it part of
your’s–blindly!