Cup of woes

Quoting Queen Elizabeth II, 2008 is turning out to be 'annus horribilis'. The
year began with grim warnings of slowdown. As it slowly unraveled its wings, infl
ation took hold and has not let go since. All these, of course, are things that
have been happening at a national level. But there have been things, which have
happened at the regional level that have really made a bad situation worse.

Look at the state of Jammu and Kashmir, for more than three months partners
in the region have had zero business. First riots broke out in Kashmir due to
the Amarnath land row, once that was a bit placated, tempers in Jammu fl ared up
and the business came to a grinding halt. Roads were blocked; cell towers
jammed-basically, a total shutdown.

Now as the state tries to limp back to normal, partners in the region are
already counting losses in business to the tune of Rs 15 crores, and mounting.
But is this the end of woes for partners in that region? I doubt that. With the
government in suspended animation and election likely to be announced soon
chances of business going back to normal are remote. Once elections are
announced, all kinds of government buying will anyway stop and that is the end
of a big chunk of business for many partners.

But J&K is not alone, very soon states including Delhi, Rajasthan, Madhya
Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Mizoram will also start the election process. Business
in large parts of North India will take a hit since state elections in the
second half of the year will, in all probability, be followed by elections at a
national level in 2009.

Elections mean that the slowdown in business is going to be far worse in the
latter part of the year than it has been in the former. As preparations for
elections start, governments are going to go slow on all kinds of projects and
buying and put all efforts in getting re-elected. So that means government
business, which these days forms the bulk to business for both vendors and
partners, will come to standstill.

With the economy in the shape that it is, partners cannot expect a bumper
festive season. Markets are already ripe with speculations about how cold or
thanda the festival season is going to be this year.

While North India reels under election fever, the eastern part of country has
its own woes. With Bihar submerged due to Kosi changing course and large parts
of Assam and Orissa also facing the fury of fl oods, business is the last thing
on people's mind. West Bengal has had so many bandhs, thanks to the Singur
impasse that it will be a wonder if any business gets done there at all. And
with partners in South already beleaguered by less rain and a prospect of
drought, there is hardly anyone who will not agree with me that this has been
unraveling as one of the worst years business wise.

In such a situation the priority should be to cut losses, do business very
safely, and hold on to the hope that the tide changes for the better, very soon.
I am doing the same, hope you are too.

shivangiy@cybermedia.co.in