Big Iron: Intel Inside, and free of RISC?

At an editors' meet at Bangalore, a rather light comment on Sun set Intel CEO Craig Barrett off about the "one company that does not get it". It's not difficult to see why: Sun is in the way, as Intel tries to take over big iron with its
Itanium.

Intel's latest processor, co-developed with HP, could change the server market. A market where "Intel server" means a cheap, low-end PC server. Where high power has meant RISC, and a few top-end mainframes from Compaq, Sun, IBM, HP, et al. 

Intel is non-existent here. (Barrett points out, though, that multi-way IA32 servers have a chunk of the $ 10,000-plus server market). Now, Itanium takes Intel into RISC territory. But it's the antithesis of RISC - it uses VLIW, very long instruction words. It's the first non-RISC processor to get into big iron space.

Thus, Intel's "macroprocessing" campaign.

Intel rules the desktop and PC server. Now, it's eyeing the big servers - sans RISC. What does IA64 mean for the server world? One view would be to draw an analogy with Microsoft, which used its desktop dominance to make in-roads into the enterprise back-end. But Intel has more
friends...

HP, as IA64 co-developer, was the first out with Itanium servers. It will make a transition over four years from its PA-RISC to IA64.

COMPAQ's Alpha will gradually bow out too, the technology transferred to
Intel, which will "absorb the people and expertise," according to Barrett. Another RISC down.

SGI started its gradual transition from its MIPS RISC processor to IA32 with its low-end workstations two years ago. The MIPS, too, will likely dissolve into the
Itanium.

That leaves two big names: Sun, and IBM.

SUN is firmly with its SPARC roadmap, the one big, significant force in RISC. Five years down, it could be the only RISC player.

IBM is the only one, I believe, with a real choice ahead. Its Power chips power its RS 6000 and AS/400s, and it has its S/390 big iron. It also "supports the Itanium". Big Blue's future systems decisions could help decide the degree of Itanium's dominance.

This is not about RISC vs CISC. It's about Intel, which runs the desktop. Will all servers also carry an Intel Inside logo a few years from now?

Not if Sun can help it. And I would imagine that IBM, too, would be keen to keep its options alive. There's a lot to be said for competition.

Yet, Intel has clearly made a grand move with the Itanium, carrying HP and Compaq along. And it's clearly headed for the status of processor powerhouse - across the systems spectrum.