10 technology trends for 2009

THE M-APPS

India enters 2009 with 300 million mobile subscribers, and will likely exit
it at 400 million. And so, mobile applications (m-apps) will be central to
entertainment, information, and banking and other services. And the telcos'
revenues too.

You'll see a plethora of m-payment services, and banks will push customers to
use SMS and m-banking to drop costs.

The media will also begin to use the platform seriously (a few dabbled with
it last year): with SMS services, the mobile web, widgets, m-apps, and
m-marketing. Expect lots of SMS spam and the failure of do-not-disturb lists,
until a service provider gets taken to court.

The phone will be the driving platform for apps: GPS, digital photography,
music distribution - they started off last year, but they'll really take off in
2009.

And the phone will be at the center of a converged, digital universe. With 3G
(and 16GB of storage), it'll be your storehouse, your credit and debit card,
your identity as a whole.

Green drives tech

India is starved of energy, and any green direction is shaped by that
shortage more than by the cost of power or environmental concern.

Mobile devices will lead low-power tech: they need to stretch battery life in
the face of 3G and multimedia.

Laptops will move from a four-hour battery life to eight hours: While we saw
long-life laptops last year (as long as 20 hours), they are not the norm. Now,
low-power processors and displays, aggressive power-save tech, and newer
software will see laptops rising to the high-battery-life band.

Energy Star logos will adorn appliances, mains adapters and chargers. And
policy changes will drive stricter energy standards for appliances (and cars),
and e-waste and disposal laws by year-end.

Disappointments: Battery tech will see no quantum leap, so your overloaded
mobile phone will last even less on a charge.

GREEN LIGHT AHEAD

Lighting will finally see a big shift to compact fluorescent lamps (CFL).
They consume less power and last longer, and you spend less on backup. Their
high cost means that we'll see success stories mostly where power utilities
subsidise CFLs, as some are now doing.

We'll also see LED lighting. Already popular for traffic lights and pocket
flashlights, you'll find them entering areas where long life and low power
offset their initial cost, such as vehicle and aircraft cabins, and also in some
homes and offices.

We'll also see a few lighting products using electro-luminescence (EL), seen
for years in aircraft cockpits and 'Indiglo' watches. EL panels can cover large
areas-backlighting a ceiling or wall, drawing less power than a small lightbulb.

GPS TAKES OFF

GPS entered the Indian market in '07, with maps finally available. Last year
saw some products and software for phones-especially Google maps for mobile and
Nokia Maps.

In 2009, GPS will enter affordable (sub-Rs 10,000) mobile-phone handsets. Car
vendors will begin to offer GPS as an option in midrange cars.

New tech: 3D GPS with 3D landmarks. Nokia Maps 3.0 now has such a feature for
some new high-end Nokia devices (head to http://www.nokia.com/betalabs to see if
your phone is compatible).

More advanced versions of GPS navigation will combine real-time video with
turn-by-turn directions. Blaupunkt's TravelPilot 500 features this, in its
'SafeDrive' navigation.

The iPhone may also soon integrate Google Street View images with satellite
data to provide a similar interface.

NEXT-GEN NETWORKS

So far, India's been stuck with older, second-generation mobile tech, the
so-called 2.5G. We're trailing the world in 3G, thanks to spectrum issues (Japan
launched 3G in 2001, South Korea in 2002, and there were 200 3G networks in over
40 countries in early 2008).

3G finally launched in India in December 2008, with MTNL's service in Delhi.
It will roll out in other parts of India, first from BSNL, and then (by
mid-2009, with the spectrum auction delayed to early Feb) from Airtel, Vodafone
and others.

Many mid-range handsets are already 3G capable, so you may not need to change
your handset to enjoy 3G service.

3G mobile broadband networks allow fast Internet access on the move, and
offer Internet access to hard-to-reach areas, without expensive cabling.

3G will mean new services, such as mobile video and multimedia. And new PCs
and laptops with built-in 3G, such as Qualcomm's Kayak prototype.

Don't expect WiMax taking off. While vendors and service providers debate
about WiMax, this always-around-the-corner tech will probably get overtaken by
3G.

THE GREENMOBILE

The oil price swings of 2008 (a high of $140 a barrel, then a low of under
$40) was a gift for our planet. It forced the world to look hard at
fuel-efficient cars.

SUVs went out of fashion even in the US, where buyers went for efficient cars
and hybrids. In India, the quirky Reva electric car generated interest again,
and the Civic Hybrid got sold out the moment a discount scheme was announced.

The car tech of 2009 will center around fuel efficiency. Honda's all-new City
will pick up some 'Car of the year' awards, with its great blend of space,
driver appeal and unprecedented power, combined with fuel efficiency.

You'll see more hybrids in the Indian market, and a range of electric
vehicles-from buses to two-wheelers.

Other tech creeping into the car: Night vision, heads-up displays,
fog-penetrating laser scanners, and an advanced anti-collision system from
Mercedes, who also gave us airbags and anti-lock braking. The system will apply
brakes automatically, coming to a complete stop if necessary.

THE NETBOOK

Last year, we saw the Asus EeePC, followed by other netbooks--cheap,
ultraportable, minimalist but connected notebook compters. Rising global demand
and Intel's low power Atom processor are ensuring that every vendor is rushing a
netbook family to market. So you'll have dozens of tiny notebooks to choose
from, in the Rs 20,000 price range.

THE INTERFACE

The way we interact with devices is changing. We saw touch and multi-touch
replacing the keyboard, with the iPhone; multi-touch will reach laptops and
other devices. Lucid touch will let you point and touch from the back of the
display-so that your fingers don't block the view of what you are touching. And
non-contact interfaces (remember Tom Cruise in Minority Report?) will emerge, as
will folding displays, e-paper and (finally) usable speech recognition.

CONTENT DELIVERY

Imagine a new set-top box on your TV set. This box will be your connection
to the outside world - your source for high-speed Internet access (providing
Wi-Fi to all connected devices), an HD set-top box and movie streamer,
transferring video to every TV, and also to mobile devices, game consoles and
laptops. It will also store several 100 hours of HD video-and support telephony
and VoIP.

HDTV

High-definition TV sets are sitting in many homes, but there's no HD
content. While blu-ray movie titles will take time to take off-expect price cuts
in the second half of the year-the DTH operators should start off a few HD
channels. Such shifts happen during sports events, so the real move to HDTV will
be around the Delhi Commonwealth Games next year... but some HD push will come
in at IPL 2009.

Prasanto K Roy

The author is Chief Editor, CyberMedia (Additional research by Hitesh R
Bhagat, Living Digital)