What might tomorrow bring?

That, of course, is a perennial question, when it comes to something moving as fast as technology. And while crystal balls are always in need of somewhat cloudy, it is interesting to occasionally kick back and explore where the experts expect things to go. This view, though, is not directly about technology per se-it is about what the results of various technologies' explosive growth are likely to mean to how we work, live and play. And those are the most interesting results of innovation, after all...

March 9, 2001 edition of CNET put this question to several high-profile research labs, including MIT's Artificial Intelligence Laboratory, Belgium's Starlab and the famed Xerox PARC. Collectively, they feel that by the end of this year, toy robots such as the Sony Aibo that we explored at COMDEX will be all the rage. And just about any toy or appliance that might benefit from being able to 'talk' will do so. (Playrooms may become even noisier...) Also, we might (finally) find the first practical attempts at 'Rosie-The Robot', a home cleaning robot, while the smart clothing might warn

us if we leave the office without our car keys!!!

Voice will see resurgence over the next few years, with keyboard-driven chat rooms and online support services using Voice over Internet Protocol (VoIP) to remove the impersonal keyboard and text element. And privacy may become a thing of the past, with a great deal of our business and personal information becoming available (internationally or otherwise) over the Web.

Indeed, the recent posting of an ICQ chat log allegedly detailing conversations between a company's CEO and his top executives, has resulted in wholesale resignations and significant corporate problems. Do not EVER assume that unencrypted communications of any sort on the Internet are secure, or that an off-hand comment will go away. Someone may well be able to dredge it up for all to see.

By the end of 2005, the research labs expect that Web-controlled robotic cleaning devices will be affordably priced and will begin to become common. Biology and electronics will continue to come together to allow prosthetic limbs to be directly controlled by the brain, and we may gain the ability to transplant additional organs, such as eyes. You don't think this is possible? Well, reader Don McArthur points us to preliminary experiments at Northwestern University, where a lamprey's brain tissue had been fused with electronics to create an experimental Cyborg--it guides itself towards a flashing light, and can 'learn! And remember those toys and appliances that we just noted will soon begin to speak? By 2006, they will begin to listen to what we have to say--not so much to the words, but to our emotions--and then react accordingly.

By the end of 2010, we shall see C-3PO-like advanced personal robots and the groundbreaking robot-assisted surgery of today will become common. Continuing work on the human genome and on tiny chips that dramatically improve gene and drug research, will lead to sophisticated home testing kits and to medicine specifically created for our individual bodies, targeted directly towards exactly what ails us. And digital art displayed on larger displays will become common.

Finally, in the unimaginably distant year of 2050, these experts believe that we will have 'precise digital control of cells' and biologically grown robotic add-ons that will be available as 'upgrades' to Human-V1.0. Nanotechnology will be moving forward nicely, with billionth-of-a-meter machines beginning to do our bidding. With both good and troubling implications, they expect that genetic engineering will take hold as well as expect the creation and replication of creatures, both large and small. 

Of course, this is a very high-level overview of the things that these folks expect will escape from the research labs, into our society. In some cases, we have heard similar predictions before (the household-cleaning robot, to point). But given the rate of technology growth, and the fact that each year's technology builds on the shoulders of the growth before it, fascinating things even if different from these

predictions, are sure to emerge.

Jeffrey Harrow

Senior Consulting Engineer (Technology and Coporate Development Group),

Compaq

Note: This is an an article from the 'Rapidly Changing Face of

Computing', a free weekly multimedia technology journal written my Jeffrey

Harrow. More discussions around the innovations and trends o contemporary

computing and the technologies that drive them are available at www.compaq.com/rcfoc