IT spending to increase 4.5% in 2014: IDC

Main growth drivers for the increase in the global IT spending will be the revival of the US and other mature economies. A significant commercial PC refresh cycle and improvements in business confidence will drive a moderate infrastructure upgrade cycle over the next 12-18 months, while investments in software and services will continue to accelerate, said IDC.

However, a significant proportion of this growth will be driven by smartphones.

IDC said IT spending excluding mobile phones will increase by 3.1 % this year.

Aside from smartphones, the strongest growth will come from software, including rapidly expanding markets such as data analytics, data management, and collaborative applications including enterprise social networks.

The 3rd platform pillars of Big Data, Social, Mobile and Cloud will continue to drive virtually all of the growth in IT spending, while spending on 2nd platform technologies will remain effectively flat.

Mature economies are still driving the upside in 2014, while emerging markets will once again dominate in 2015.

IDC forecasts PC spending will increase 3.5 % in 2014.

The US tablet market is now forecast to increase by 2 % this year, but will rebound to 7 % growth in 2015 as the PC cycle begins to wane. Worldwide tablet spending has slowed from 29 % year-over-year growth last year to 8 % in 2014, but will accelerate back to 10 % growth next year. Penetration rates in emerging markets such as China will continue to increase, while some enterprise spending will shift back to tablets.

The economic slowdown in 2013 had a negative impact on IT spending in China. IT spending growth in China decelerated to 8 % last year but is on course for 13 % growth in constant currency in 2014.

Excluding mobile phones, IT spending in China will increase by 5 % this year against 2 %, excluding phones, in 2013). Server spending in China will increase by 7 % against 0 % in 2013, storage spending by 8 % against 1.5 % in 2013, and software by 9 % against 7 % last year. But overall market growth is weighed down by the declining PC market.

IT spending in India will increase by 15% next year against 8% in 2014.

In Brazil, the market will accelerate from 10 % growth this year to 13 % next year.

In Russia, where the crisis in Ukraine has damaged business and investor confidence since the beginning of the year, the market is set to decline slightly in 2014 before rebounding to 7 % growth in 2015.

The U.S. IT market will increase by 4 % this year, and Western Europe will maintain a 2 % growth rate overall.

Total worldwide IT spending will reach almost $2.1 trillion in 2014. Including telecommunications services, the worldwide ICT market will increase by 4 % to $3.7 trillion, with telecom services growth of 4 % driven by mobile data services and increasing broadband penetration.

The report is authored by IDC