Is wireless for real or just a lot of hype

Although waves of wireless hype booming from every corner of the Comdex show floor was deafening, Michael Dell, Chairman, Dell sent a wake-up call through the show in his keynote address. Dell clearly doubts the potential of the wireless Web access devices as a business solution to compete with the traditional personal computer.

Comdex, Dell said, is a lot like the casinos in Las Vegas--lots of bells and whistles and a lot of gambling. "This year, many companies are placing their big bets on wireless communications, showing new devices and add-ons to let mobile office workers and consumers access. Those devices, for the foreseeable future, will be little more than companion devices for people's powerful personal computers. 

"A lot of people might say, 'You don't do anything interesting - but we just don't do anything stupid. We do things that work,'' said Dell, "Keep in mind that everyone who has a Palm, or a PocketPC, uses it in conjunction with another computer. All these devices are basically complementary to the PC.''

Underscoring his point, Dell, during his keynote address, asked if anyone in the tech-savvy audience used a hand-held device as his only computer. Not

one hand went up.

Other skeptics point to previous attempts to bring portable computing power to the masses. EO, Go, Grid Systems and Apple (Newton) are just a few

that tried but failed miserably in the marketplace. One of the problems was that portable computer devices ended up being used mostly in small niche

markets. 

"We did a tablet a long time ago,'' said Keith Comer, a senior product designer at Toshiba America. "We have a bad taste in our mouths. It's just too small of a market.'' 

Despite the success of Palm and others, the numbers in the wireless device market, not counting cellular phones, remain small. Worldwide sales of handheld Web-enabled products totaled 7.4 million in 1999. PC shipments, on the other hand, totaled 119 million units and grew 18 percent to an estimated 134 million units in 2000. Sales are projected to grow about 15 percent annually to 188 million units by the year 2003.

The current crop of wireless device companies, however, think momentum, and good fortune are on their side, thanks in part to the success of the Palm

and improved technology for everything from LCD displays to receiver/transmitter components.

The shift to wireless Web devices prompted a number of companies that previously had little or no presence at Comdex, such as LG Electronics, Nokia, and Ericsson, to set up large booth and they were packed with people for all of the five days of the show.

Consumers should not have overblown expectations of the first generation of Web-enabled wireless devices, analysts said. Connection speeds will be

slow and losing a connection will be a frequently experienced frustration, as evident by the cellular gridlock in Las Vegas last week where making cellular calls proved difficult and many connections were lost. And data sent over a wireless connection is subject to all sorts of security concerns.

"Everyone who is running a network is afraid of being the next Microsoft,'' said Philip Yanov, executive, (e-business), Kyrus, referring to

the recent break-in by hackers into Microsoft's servers. "It's so complicated, we don't understand all the ways we could be attacked.''

(SVNS)